Four highlights of the hottest central economic wo

2022-08-19
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Four highlights of the central economic work conference can't be missed

four highlights of the central economic work conference can't be missed

China Construction machinery information

the central economic work conference was held in December. How to set the tone for economic work in 2017 is the focus of this meeting. The industry predicts that the general tone of the policy in 2017 may still be "seeking progress in stability", the policy is mainly stable, and the macro-control is expected to continue to adopt the combination of "active finance and stable currency". In order to stabilize the economy, achieve financial development and growth, and accelerate economic transformation, there will be new measures and breakthroughs in fiscal and tax system reform, investment and financing system reform, supply side reform and other fields in 2017

highlight 1: the general base seasoning remains "seeking progress in stability"

as the most authoritative weathervane to judge the current economic situation and set the tone of macroeconomic policies in the second year - the central economic work conference is approaching. Will steady growth be the theme of this central economic work conference? Some clues may be found from the statements made at relevant high-level meetings

On November 15, Li Keqiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Premier of the State Council, presided over a symposium to listen to the opinions and suggestions of relevant experts and business leaders on doing a good job in economic development and improving people's livelihood. At the meeting, Li Keqiang stressed the need to do a good job in economic work, implement the new development concept, stabilize and improve macro policies, work hard on the basis of consolidating "stability", make more practical moves on the strength of "progress", appropriately expand aggregate demand, strive to promote supply side structural reform, give more prominence to improving quality and efficiency, and continue to expand the positive trend of the economy

as 2016 is drawing to a close and the year-end central work conference is about to be held, this symposium is of great significance for setting the tone of the future economy. "Stability and progress" may still be the theme of the economy in 2017. Analysts believe that the economy is expected to continue to operate in the range of 6.5% to 7% next year, but the growth rate may fall slightly compared with this year. Next year, the general tone of the policy may still be "seeking progress in stability", the policy is mainly stable, and the macro-control is expected to continue to adopt the combination of "active finance and stable currency". There will be new measures and breakthroughs in supply side reform, state-owned enterprise reform, fiscal and tax system reform and other reforms

pan Xiangdong, chief economist of galaxy securities, said that there is little possibility of obvious adjustment of macro policies in 2017, and the fiscal policy will remain at a relatively positive level and be moderately strengthened. The possibility of monetary policy turning to gross easing is low, and it will still maintain the characteristics of overall soundness, neutrality and moderate tightness. In this regard, we need to take into account factors such as maintaining the stability of the exchange rate, the constraints of the Fed's interest rate hike process, as well as curbing asset foam and preventing economic and financial risks

Lihuiyong, chief macroeconomic analyst of Shenwan Hongyuan, said that in combination with the economic situation at home and abroad, the main task of the economy next year is to maintain growth, prevent risks and promote reform. In this context, the general tone of macro-control policies may not change. Monetary policy will pay attention to two aspects: one is to maintain a moderate degree of liquidity to provide the necessary funds for economic growth while avoiding the asset bubble caused by the "excess of funds into falsehood"; Second, the general tone of the RMB exchange rate will not change. Next year, while the RMB exchange rate will remain generally stable, the fluctuation range will be moderately expanded

point 2: supply side reform plays a "combined fist"

the central economic work conference held in 2016 put forward five major tasks, namely, reducing production capacity, inventory, deleveraging, reducing costs, and making up for weaknesses. 2016 is the first year of the 13th five year plan. The economic tasks of 2016 may run through the 13th five year plan. In the context of supply side structural reform, the tasks of "three deletions, one reduction and one subsidy" have not come to an end. It is expected that these tasks will continue in 2017

lixunlei, chief economist of Haitong, said that the main task of supply side reform is "three deleveraging, one reduction and one subsidy". This year, it is mainly to promote the removal of production capacity and inventory, and it is expected to increase deleveraging next year

since 2016, steel and coal capacity reduction has been in full swing. On June 14, the Ministry of Finance issued the measures for the administration of special awards and subsidies for industrial enterprise restructuring, encouraging local and central enterprises to withdraw from excess capacity in coal and steel as soon as possible. According to the "steel industry adjustment and upgrading plan (year)", the "capacity reduction" is listed as the top priority, and it is proposed that by 2020, the crude steel capacity will be reduced by 100-150 million tons. In terms of coal, according to the opinions on resolving excess capacity in the coal industry and achieving poverty relief and development, we will strive to withdraw about 500 million tons of production capacity and reduce and restructure about 500 million tons in three to five years

therefore, the task of reducing steel and coal production capacity in 2017 is still very arduous. In addition, the list of de capacity may be expanded. For example, 30% of the capacity of China's shipbuilding industry is pending. In the future, multiple ministries and commissions will jointly launch supporting policies to promote the merger and reorganization of shipbuilding enterprises, which is expected to provide support in many aspects, such as finance and finance. In addition, in the context of the reform of state-owned enterprises, the overall idea of eliminating zombie enterprises and production capacity will continue in the fields of power, oil, natural gas, railway, civil aviation, telecommunications, military industry and so on. In the future, the capacity list may continue to expand

it is noteworthy that in terms of deleveraging, a policy document has been issued recently, and the State Council has agreed to establish an inter ministerial joint conference system led by the national development and Reform Commission to actively and steadily reduce enterprise leverage. Lihuiyong said that these policies issued at the end of the year will guide the work next year. Next year, there may be major breakthroughs in debt to equity swap and deleveraging, and more market-oriented measures will be introduced. It is expected that more asset management companies will participate in the debt restructuring process

for the secondary market, institutions believe that the promotion of capacity reduction will lead to the rise of asset prices, and focus on resource stocks, such as non-ferrous metals, Chihong Zinc and germanium in coal, Jizhong energy, Jinling mining, etc. However, resource stocks are highly correlated with the trend of commodity futures, so it is necessary to closely track the trend of corresponding commodity futures. On the other hand, the price rise of upstream resource products will be gradually transmitted to the middle and lower reaches. Due to the rising cost, the pressure of price rise of products in the middle reaches of the industry will gradually appear, and individual stocks may also show the price rise effect

the refitting of experimental aircraft was first called the third aspect of aircraft (plus) refitting: it is expected to continue to adhere to the moderate expansion of total demand

there is still about a month to go. The economic data for the whole year of 2016 will be released. At present, the mainstream prediction view of major institutions believes that the economic growth rate for the whole year of this year is still about 6.7%, and the economic growth rate in 2017 should be about 6.5%. This shows that although industry institutions have different views on the economic trend next year, it is a consensus that the economy will continue to slow down next year. In this context, the agency believes that the moderate expansion of total demand may still be maintained next year, and the troika of investment, consumption and export still needs to play a role

On October 28, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee proposed to consolidate the stabilization of investment, promote the steady growth of consumption, and promote the improvement of foreign trade. There are some new situations in the above three major demands: for example, foreign trade is still in the doldrums, the consumption growth rate slowed down in October due to the disappearance of the automobile stimulus effect, and the investment slowed down as a whole, but there are structural changes in state-owned enterprise investment, private enterprise investment, manufacturing investment and real estate investment

according to the data, the national export in October was 1185.8 billion yuan, down 3.2%, 2.4 percentage points narrower than that of the previous month. The growth rate of retail sales of social consumer goods was 10%, lower than the 10.7% growth rate in September. The monthly growth rate of fixed asset investment was 8.3%, which was slightly better than the 8.1% growth rate in August and August

industry insiders said that in order to stabilize economic growth, it is necessary to continue to moderately expand demand next year, and continue to focus on investment, consumption and export. More investment should be made in emerging industries, people's livelihood, public services and infrastructure. Consumption 11. The policy of turning on the main switch should promote service consumption, improve the quality and level of industrial consumer goods, and further improve the consumption environment. The export policy should promote the transfer and upgrading of processing trade and support the export of service trade more

Shen Lisheng, a researcher at the Institute of quantity of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that in order to promote the rapid growth of consumption, the core is to improve the income level of low-income groups in the central and western regions, which still needs to increase fiscal expenditure

point 4: it will curb the asset foam and prevent financial risks

on November 28, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting. After the mid year meeting on July 26, the Political Bureau meeting publicly stated "curb the asset foam" for the second time. When it comes to curbing the asset foam, the real estate industry bears the brunt. If the core of going to the foam in 2015 is the packaging of packages by the stock market, 2016 is real estate, and this trend will continue into 2017

since September 30 this year, the regulation of the property market has shown a clear wave trend, with three waves of regulation policies. In terms of the density and intensity of regulation, if there is any loosening of house prices, the war to curb the foam will continue until 2017. It can also be seen from the high-level statement that the determination to control house prices and curb the foam is extremely firm, even higher than the task of destocking. The first and second tier control of house prices and the emphasis on control will also help the third and fourth tier de inventory task. Therefore, it is expected that in 2017, curbing the asset foam or housing prices will replace or increase with destocking

according to the analysis, in addition to the purchase restriction and regulation policies, the suppression of asset foam is mainly influenced by the money market. It is expected that under this tone, the monetary policy will not be too loose next year. From a global perspective, the current market seems to have entered a inflection point of liquidity, and it is difficult to re appear the flood irrigation drainage in the later stage

Jiang Chao, chief Macro Analyst of Haitong Securities, said that since the fourth quarter, China's policy focus has shifted from stabilizing growth to preventing risks and promoting reform. The downward pressure on the economy in the early stage is large, so the relaxation of real estate has stabilized growth. After the growth has stabilized, real estate has completed its historical mission. The management is also aware of the huge risks behind the real estate foam, especially the exchange rate risk, so it clearly proposes to "curb the asset foam and prevent financial risks". Therefore, this round of real estate regulation should be unprecedented. It will be determined to curb speculative demand and control the rise of house prices, and at the same time, it will start to accelerate the reform of state-owned enterprises

big data: the probability of A-share rising during the meeting is more than 70%

the central economic work conference will be held in December, at which time, the top management will set the tone for next year's economic work. Judging from the central economic work conference in the past three years, the theme is inseparable from "seeking progress in stability", and its theme can be summarized as stable growth. However, under the circumstances that the domestic economy is still facing downward pressure and the foreign economic environment is uncertain, some economists suggest that the expected target of economic growth next year be appropriately lowered to make room for deleveraging and structural adjustment

from the perspective of the secondary market, the annual policy theme speculation has always been a beautiful scenic spot for a shares, and there is a certain need to maintain stability in the stock index during this period. Historically, during every important meeting, the probability of A-share falling sharply is low, which has formed the unique meeting stability market of our A-share market for a long time

according to statistics, we can find that during the central economic work conference held in recent 18 years, the market has a 71% probability of rising; There is a 65% probability of an increase on the 5th day after the meeting. This means that the stock index will probably turn red during and after the central economic work conference next month